phosphorus

[KevinC]

Everyone has heard of "Peak Oil", much less is said about "Peak Phosphorus".  Phosphorus is one of the 3 macro-nutrients used by plants.  Its the P in NPK (Nitrogen, Phosphous, Potassium (aka "Potash")).

The world supplies are not bad - most estimate around 200 years worth at current consumption rates.  However, expand the usage of chemical fertilizers and that number will scale.  e.g  10X more global fertilizer to fuel the Green Revolution would shrink 200 years down to 20.

Phosphorus is NOT evenly distributed around the world.  In fact, 70% of the worlds supply is in Morocco - not exactly a politically stable area of the planet.  The other major reserves are in Russia and China...

Peek production of Phosphorus in the USA happened almost 40 years ago in 1980.  Some estimate we currently only have 18-30 years of supply left in the USA (which only has about 2% of the world base supply).

Why is this important?  Food.  When the USA runs out of phosphorus, we will either need to import it, or not employ modern, fertilizer based, agriculture.  Not only will that hurt the USA, but the USA is a major exporter of grains to other world areas.

There is hope:  No-till/Crop rotation/Cover crop farming techniques, when combined, use a fraction of the current fertilizer.  After a few years of transition, a small fraction.  After a decade or more, fertilizers usage is trivial.  What is truely amazing is that yields don't seem to suffer at all, and often improve.  In some areas of the USA this is becoming the standard farming technique used - and I'm not talking about hippy organic farms in California - I'm talking about 1/3rd of South Dekota with growing usage in states like Kansas and others.  This is not pleasing some industries or some industry funded government organizations.

ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus
ref: https://www.agriculture.com/crops/cover-crops/farming-trifecta-no-till-cover-crops-and-a-diverse-rotation

[Martathymn]

The US president raged at NATO allies over defense spending in meeting with the German chancellor, as Israel ordered its military to 'advance' in Lebanon